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US job openings hit a two-year low
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
That’s the lowest number job openings seen during a month since March 2021 and is further evidence of a cooling US labor market, according to the BLS’ October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report. October’s tally is significantly lower than the record 12.03 million positions hit in March 2022, and the figure is approaching the roughly 7 million openings seen pre-pandemic. After two consecutive months of JOLTS surprising to the upside, the latest job openings total came in well under expectations. Economists’ forecasts called for the October postings to hit 9.3 million, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates. Employers, employees more cautiousThe Federal Reserve has been hoping to see more slack in the labor market to help in the central bank’s fight to bring down inflation.
Persons: ” Karin Kimbrough, , ” Kimbrough, “ They’ve, Tuesday’s, Kimbrough, , “ They’re, Wells, Sarah House, Michael Pugliese Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Labor, CNN, Federal Reserve, Employees, Locations: Minneapolis
A government shutdown looming on the horizon could dampen sentiment to start October even as Wall Street wraps up what's been a challenging month and quarter. Many market participants expect that the financial markets and economy will broadly shake off concerns from a shutdown as they have in the past. "The market's probably going to set it aside until or unless it starts to have a larger impact on behaviors." Economic impact Historically, government shutdowns have been relatively short-lived, though they have been longer and more disruptive recently. Meanwhile, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, expects the government shutdown is "all bark and no bite" when it comes to market reaction.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Rob Haworth, Wells, Michael Pugliese, Bank's Haworth, Aditya Bhave, Jay Woods, Woods, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Lamb Weston Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Nasdaq, BEA, Bank of America U.S, Labor, Freedom Capital, Atlanta Fed's, PMI, Manufacturing, McCormick, ADP, Services PMI, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Consumer Credit Locations: Wells Fargo
But food prices rose 0.2% after being unchanged for two consecutive months as fruits and vegetables, nonalcoholic beverages and other food products became more expensive. While the unemployment rate rose to a seven-month high of 3.7%, that was from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April. The so-called core CPI increased 0.4% in May, rising by the same margin for the third straight month. Beyond May, however, overall core inflation is expected to slow, driven by a moderation in rents and resumption in price declines for used cars and trucks. "We expect a more noticeable deceleration in core prices in the coming months," said Michael Pugliese, a senior economist with Wells Fargo in New York.
Persons: Kathy Bostjancic, Joe Biden, I've, Biden, nonfarm, Michael Pugliese, Wells, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters, Treasury, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Ukraine
While the Treasury Department hasn’t explicitly given a reason for its tax revenue deficiency, experts have said two main factors may have caused a shortfall. Pugliese said that last year, capital gains taxes paid to the government were “unusually strong” due to a market boom. That led to really strong capital gains tax revenue increases,” he said. Tornadoes, winter storms and mudslides pushed deadlines for millions of taxpayersAnother factor that may have lowered the federal government’s tax income this year: unexpected natural disasters. California’s payments might have had an outsized effect on the federal government’s tax revenue shortage, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Among the ramifications of a debt ceiling standoff, any payment issued by the federal government — like Social Security, Medicare, tax refunds, military paychecks and ample others — may be delayed. Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThe U.S. is in this situation due to a political standoff tied to the debt ceiling, also known as the debt limit. Congress periodically raises or temporarily suspends the debt ceiling to avoid the other scenario: a default on the national debt and other federal payments. Here's the current problem: The country hit the debt ceiling — currently $31.4 trillion — in January. Federal Reserve officials alluded to the likelihood of prioritizing bondholders in a 2011 meeting that followed an earlier debt ceiling episode.
Minneapolis CNN —High prices, rising interest rates and banking uncertainty be damned: The US labor market is still chugging right along. “The American labor market right now is simply unstoppable,” RSM economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in a note Friday. “This is what a soft landing would look like, with job growth gradually slowing to a more sustainable pace,” Faucher added. The milestone comes just three years after the Covid-19 pandemic caused mass layoffs that pushed the Black unemployment rate as high as 16.8%. “Make no mistake, the Black [unemployment] rate is still too high,” Shierholz tweeted.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI think the Fed's a little more likely to pause, says Wells Fargo's Michael PuglieseMichael Pugliese, sr. economist at Wells Fargo, joins CNBC’s Jon Fortt and the ‘CNBC Special: Taking stock’ to discuss the Fed’s efforts to tame inflation and what they’re likely to do this week.
Takeaways from the February jobs report
  + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
Minneapolis CNN —February’s jobs report had a little something for everyone. In February, the construction industry added 24,000 jobs, marking 12 consecutive months of employment growth. Friday’s report showed that “a modicum of slack crept back into the jobs market,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. However, Friday’s jobs report likely won’t spur a more dovish turn from the Fed, said Sean Snaith, an economist and director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We didn’t go from a four-alarm fire to a five-alarm fire with this data report, but the inflation flames aren’t out either,” he wrote in a note Friday.
Minneapolis CNN —After the United States hit its debt ceiling on Thursday, the Treasury Department is now undertaking “extraordinary measures” to keep paying the government’s bills. And Americans — many people — would lose their jobs and certainly their borrowing costs would rise.”Dire warnings of debt ceiling trouble aren’t new. “2011 was the first time in a long time that we came close to a debt ceiling breach,” he said. “I think you would be hard pressed to say [the debt ceiling debacle] was a positive thing,” he said. Considering the potential consequences in the United States and abroad, Sheiner believes the debt ceiling will be lifted or suspended — eventually.
Positioning your portfolio following the midterm election
  + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPositioning your portfolio following the midterm electionCiti's Scott Chronert and Wells Fargo's Michael Pugliese join 'Closing Bell' to discuss potential outcomes for the midterm election and how they're positioning portfolios ahead of time.
The number of job openings dropped to just under 10.1 million, down from 11.2 million in July, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jay Powell is fist pumping at that job openings number. — Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) October 4, 2022Economists were expecting job openings to fall to just 10.8 million, according to estimates on Refinitiv. Practically every industry saw a decline in job openings, indicating a broader slowdown, he said. “The key concern for the medium-term US inflation outlook is the extreme imbalance in the labor market,” he wrote.
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